Renewable Energy · Strategy · Peer-reviewed

"It saves money" is the renewable energy message that works on everyone. And it lasts.

In a three-wave experiment with 2,891 Republicans and Democrats, a short message about the cost savings of renewables moved beliefs more than messages about jobs or climate did, and about half the effect was still there three weeks later.

Almost everything we know about persuasive messages comes from measuring people seconds after they read one. That tells you about the immediate reaction. It tells you nothing about whether the message is still in their head a week later, which is what matters for a campaign. This study, led by Abel Gustafson in his academic role at the University of Cincinnati with collaborators at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Georgetown University, tested three messages about renewable energy and then followed the same people for three weeks to watch the effects fade.

The research team recruited 2,891 self-identified Republicans and Democrats and showed each a short, infographic-style message that emphasized one benefit of renewable energy: it costs less than fossil fuels, it grows the economy and creates jobs, or it reduces global warming. A control group read about an unrelated topic. The team measured beliefs about renewables and support for renewable energy policy right away, again after about 11 days, and once more after another 13 days.

Right away, the cost-savings message had the largest effect on beliefs, and the effect was nearly the same size for Democrats (d = 0.76) and Republicans (d = 0.68). The economy and jobs message came next. The global warming message was the weakest, and much weaker for Republicans (0.17) than for Democrats (0.43). On the index of policy support, the cost-savings and economy messages had small positive effects in both parties. The global warming message did not move Republicans' support at all.

Three messages, three weeks: how the effects on beliefs decayed Cost savings 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.76 0.68 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.33 Right away ~11 days ~3 weeks Economy & jobs 0.50 0.44 0.31 0.14 0.29 0.08 Right away ~11 days ~3 weeks Global warming 0.43 0.17 0.25 -0.08 0.16 0.00 Right away ~11 days ~3 weeks Effect on beliefs (SD units) Democrats Republicans GUSTAFSON ET AL. (2022), NATURE ENERGY · N = 2,891 AT TIME 1 · EFFECTS VS. CONTROL, SD UNITS
Figure 1. Standardized effect of each message on the belief it targeted (that renewables cost less, that they create jobs, that they limit warming), measured immediately, after about 11 days, and after about 24 days. All three messages drop sharply and then level off. Only the cost-savings message starts high and stays high for both parties.

Every effect dropped sharply over the first ten days and then flattened out, a pattern that has since shown up in study after study. But the plateaus sat at different heights. After three weeks, Democrats still held 44% of the cost-savings effect and Republicans 57%. The economy message held up well for Republicans (66%) but mostly faded for Democrats (15%). The global warming message retained 36% among Democrats and essentially nothing among Republicans. Cost savings was the only message that was both large and durable for both parties.

How much of each message's effect survived three weeks? Share of the immediate effect on beliefs still present about 24 days later Democrats Republicans 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 44% 57% Cost savings 15% 66% Economy & jobs 36% 1% Global warming % of initial effect remaining GUSTAFSON ET AL. (2022), NATURE ENERGY · % OF TIME 1 EFFECT REMAINING AT TIME 3
Figure 2. Durability of the three messages, by party. The cost-savings effect held up about equally well for both parties. The economy message held for Republicans but not Democrats; the global warming message held for Democrats but not Republicans. Note that the Republican global warming estimate is a ratio of two near-zero numbers and has a very wide confidence interval.
About half of the immediate effect of the cost-savings message was still there three weeks later, for Democrats and Republicans alike.

For communicators, the result is unusually clean. A message about lower costs is not a compromise frame that works a little for everyone. It was the best-performing message for both parties and the most durable one. Given how quickly the cost of renewables has fallen, it also has the advantage of being true, which makes it a strategy that gets stronger over time.

Source. Gustafson, A., Goldberg, M. H., Bergquist, P., Lacroix, K., Rosenthal, S. A., & Leiserowitz, A. (2022). The durable, bipartisan effects of emphasizing the cost savings of renewable energy. Nature Energy, 7. doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01099-2

About this research. This study was carried out through the authors' academic positions at the University of Cincinnati, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, and Georgetown University. This page is XandY's plain-language summary of the published findings.

Method. Preregistered three-wave longitudinal experiment. Participants were U.S. Republicans and Democrats recruited on Prolific in June 2020; N = 2,891 at Time 1, 2,460 at Time 2 (about 11 days later), and 2,071 at Time 3 (about 13 days after that). Five conditions: cost savings, economy and jobs, global warming, a message about renewables with no benefit emphasized, and an unrelated control. Effects are OLS estimates versus the control, standardized within party. Attrition did not meaningfully change the composition of the sample. Data and materials: osf.io/6cf93. Funded by the Energy Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the MacArthur Foundation.