REPORT:
How likely is Massachusetts to pass their psychedelics ballot measure?

an analysis of likely outcomes

 

by Abel Gustafson & MATTHEW GOLDBERG
OCTOBER 2024

On November 5th, Massachusetts will vote on a ballot measure that would legalize the possession and use of some natural psychedelics in some situations. The limited polling available indicates this may be decided by a narrow margin. In the report deck made available here, we explain some of the data and reasoning that lead us to consider it more likely than not that Massachusetts voters will pass this ballot measure, although many factors could still tip it in either direction.

 
 


Summary

Bringing all the evidence together, it is likely that this ballot measure will be decided by a narrow margin. Overall, we consider it more likely than not that it will pass. However, we recognize that either result could easily happen. Even if the chances were a hearty 70% (which is a large overestimate here), the measure would fail in nearly 1 in 3 cases. 

As shown above, our position is based on the following:

  • An average of two polls shows 48% support among registered / likely voters, and substantial room for more support from people that poll as being still undecided.

  • Actual voting on prior similar ballot measures shows that the “yes” votes tend to be consistently higher than what is reported in the polls. However, this is based on a very limited amount of state-specific polling on psychedelics. We are working to change that by fundraising for the Psychedelics Social Insights Hub.

  • Betting markets–valuable complements to polling—have odds leaning toward success.

  • The specific phrasing of this ballot measure may assuage concerns of those who are seeing it for the first time on the ballot while voting. 

Based on our national data, we think success in Massachusetts heavily depends on persuading key audiences—especially women and people over the age of 55—as well as increasing turnout among younger voters. Turnout is especially important because young voters are simultaneously less likely to go vote while also being more likely to support psychedelics legalization. Our national data suggests that support for legalization of psychedelics does not have especially large partisan divides, with similar levels of undecided voters across Democrats and Republicans.

Citation

This report may be cited as:

Gustafson, A., & Goldberg, M. H., (2024). How Likely is Massachusetts to Pass Their Psychedelics Ballot Measure? XandY. New Haven, CT. Retrieved from https://www.xandyanalytics.com/ma-ballot-measure-likelihood